Corn crop at peak but commodity prices low
By Steve Herring
Published in News on July 17, 2016 1:45 AM
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News-Argus/STEVE HERRING
Thanks to timely rainfall Wayne County's corn crop is shaping up to be the most successful one in recent years. Jeff Parks, left, who farms 110 acres of corn in the Hood Swamp community, and Wayne County Extension Director Kevin Johnson check out how the ears have filled out in one of Parks' fields.
Wet weather kept farmer Jeff Parks from being able to get a corn crop in the ground last year. For others, hot, dry conditions took a toll of yield.
The rain has been kinder this year, not just for Parks' 110 acres of corn in the Hood Swamp community northeast of Goldsboro, but cornfields countywide.
The downside to what is shaping up to what could be the county' best corn crop in recent years is the low commodity prices that will necessitate good yields just to break even, much less realize a profit.
The price of corn has been fluctuating, but currently is selling for about $4 bushel, said Kevin Johnson Wayne County Cooperative Extension Service director.
Farmers are going to want at least 150 bushels an acre as a break-even mark, he said.
"If they got a hundred bushels to the acre, that is $400," he said. "Well, it costs more than $400 to plant it. You have to plant it. You've got your fertilizer. You've got your herbicides. That is why I am saying they are going to need 125 to 150 (bushels per acre) depending on the farmer -- depending on what they have put into the crop. But it probably costs $450 an acre just to put the crop in.
"I think we have fairly good potential with corn. But with that said, prices are really low. There is so much on the market, and so many factors affect commodities prices. All of the commodities prices are down. So even with good yields there's going to some questions to whether some of them break even with corn, especially if they did have a little injury early and yield only a 100 to 120 bushels an acre -- they are not going to break even with that."
Along with a poultry operation Parks, 48, farms a total of about 600 acres of corn, soybeans and some sweet potatoes.
This year the rain fell at just the right time, he said.
Based on data from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, 2 inches of rain fell April through June, all which fell on June 30, Parks said.
"So that lets you know how dry it was getting," he said. "I didn't have any planted last year due to the wet weather. It stayed so wet that we weren't able to get it in in a timely manner. We try to have a little bit of corn every year.
"We were fortunate enough to get rain in time that I am hoping for an average yield of 150 bushels (per acre)."
Parks said he thinks that will be sufficient to make a profit.
"I am like most farmers, I try to look at the bright side," he said. "Those that planted real early, I think their corn got hurt a little bit, but most of them that were a little late feel satisfied."
LaGrange and some of the eastern fringes of the county missed some of the early rains, Johnson said.
"But it was still timely enough that we made a crop," he said. "We definitely made a good crop. The last couple of years we have not had great corn crops. It seems like we always have a hot, dry spell during pollination."
This year the county went three weeks where it was very dry and hot in June, he said.
"But that last couple days of June and the first couple of weeks of July we have had some adequate rainfall," he said.
"I do think that some of our early corn (planted in late March) was hurt. We probably had some pollination issues with early corn."
Early corn would have been pollinating during the June hot-and-dry spell. When temperatures reach the upper 90s, corn can't pollinate, Johnson said.
"We had a couple of days when it got really hot, and of course when it is really dry, it (corn) struggles with pollination. But it is not like it is a disaster. Even that corn will yield. They will get, hopefully, 60 percent of their yield potential."
On a county average, the hope is for 120 to 150 bushels per acre, Johnson said.
Then, there are going to be farmers who will be able to get close to 200 bushels per acre, he said.
It depends on the soil type and their location in the county, he said.
"On some of our sandier soils, we are hoping for 150," he said. "We are hoping for 150, and if we get 120, we will be OK. Then on some of our heavier soils, we'd like to get 175, and if we get 200, it is a home run."
Farmers are still working on crop reports so acreage number are not available, Johnson said.
"We know there was a lot of corn planted in Wayne County," he said. "We know, talking to the farmers, there was a lot of corn planted in North Carolina because cotton acreage has gone way done because there is no way to make any money on cotton.
"You would have to yield way over two bales an acre to make a profit on cotton. If you ride around, talk to the farmers -- the cotton acreage is way off. So they were looking for a crop that they thought had the most potential."
Soybeans would appear to be the logical replacement crop, but last year's miserable crop yield resulted in a seed shortage this year, Johnson said.
"So that left them with corn," he said. "I am going to guess that we probably have 35,000 to 40,000 acres of corn this year -- up probably 20 percent (compared to last year)."
Johnson said he thinks that 70 percent of all the corn planted in the county will probably be fine.
Even the early corn that was hurt will be OK, other than that the yield potential is not what it once was, he said.
"We are in good shape with corn now," he said. "Once you pollinate corn, it fills rather quickly. So I think we are in pretty good shape with corn.
"I am not saying that we couldn't have a storm to blow it down. There are some other issues that could happen (including disease), but overall I think we are positioned well with corn."